Experts tell the Urban Land Institute to expect steady, not spectacular, performance The next three years will bring continued economic expansion, with moderate employment growth and solid, but not spectacular, performance from the real estate industry, according to a new meta-analysis and forecast.
According to the Urban Land Institute?s annual Real Estate Economic Forecast, a survey of 48 of the industry?s top economists and analysts representing 34 leading real estate investment, advisory, and research firms, the near future is relatively bright for the real estate industry. Buoyed by increased business investment and corporate confidence, analysts predict 2 to 2.5 percent GDP growth over the next few years, with the unemployment rate expected to drop to 4.2 percent in 2018, the lowest rate since 2000. During an afternoon press call introducing and discussing the report?s findings, some analysts suggested some worry about potential federal policies, noting that any restrictions on skilled immigration, as well as potential trade wars, might be risks, ?self-inflicted wounds? impacting the economic cycle.
Key findings of the forecast include:
High-flying commercial sector will slow
After reaching a post-recession peak of $547 billion in commercial transaction in 2015, the commercial sector will continue to decline, hitting $414 billion in 2019. Despite the declines, however, these numbers are well above the 16-year average of $294 billion. Prices for this sector are...